Early March 2026: Military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran have plunged the Middle East into unprecedented tension.
Particular concern centers on the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the “vital artery” of global energy supply.
For Japan, which relies on the Middle East for roughly 90% of its crude oil, this situation is far from a distant fire.
We explain the potential impacts on our daily lives and economy, incorporating expert perspectives.
1. What is the Strait of Hormuz, the “World’s Energy Artery”?
The Strait of Hormuz is an extremely narrow waterway, approximately 150 km long, separating the Persian Gulf from the Gulf of Oman. At its narrowest point, it is only about 33 km wide.
- Key Supply Route
Approximately 20% of the world’s crude oil supply and about 80% of Japan’s imported crude oil (with overall Middle East dependency at about 96%) pass through this sea area. - Risk of Blockade
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps declared a ban on vessel passage, and actual warning radio transmissions have been confirmed, making a physical blockade a tangible possibility. - Impact on Shipping
Japan’s three major shipping companies—NYK Line, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha—have already decided to suspend navigation through the strait to ensure safety. Disruptions to the logistics network have begun.
2. How High Will Crude Oil Prices Go? CSIS Estimates and Forecasts
International think tanks, including the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), are simulating crude oil prices (such as WTI futures) amid worsening conditions.
| Severity of the situation | Predicted Price (per barrel) | Primary Economic Impacts |
| Occurrence of navigation obstruction | Over $90 | A gradual rise in gasoline prices, increased transportation costs |
| Localized clashes continue | around $110 | Passing on electricity and gas costs, cost pressures on manufacturing |
| Full-scale conflict and blockade | Over $130 | Risk of global stagflation, sharp rise in prices |
The current trend of $100 per barrel will exert powerful pressure to push domestic gasoline prices in Japan above ¥200 per liter.
3. Specific Impacts on Japanese Life and Economy
Japan’s extremely low energy self-sufficiency rate means high crude oil prices directly hit household budgets.
- Chain Reaction of Energy Price Increases
Not only gasoline and kerosene costs, but electricity and gas bills will also surge several months later through the fuel cost adjustment system for thermal power generation. - Increased Logistics and Transportation Costs
As fuel costs for delivery trucks rise, cost-push inflation will spread to the prices of all goods—vegetables, processed foods, daily necessities—not merely as opportunistic price hikes. - Current Stockpile Status
The Japanese government holds approximately 200 days’ worth of petroleum reserves (national stockpile + private reserves). However, this serves only as insurance “if supply stops.” Its ability to halt soaring market prices themselves is limited.
4. Summary: How Should We Prepare?
The escalating tensions in the Middle East are not merely political news; they are a serious situation directly impacting our wallets within weeks.
Should crude oil prices exceed $130 per barrel, discussions will likely arise regarding the continuation or expansion of government subsidies (the Fuel Oil Price Fluctuation Mitigation Program).
The focus going forward will center on two key points: “How long will Iran’s blockade last?” and “Will oil-producing nations (OPEC Plus) move to increase production?”
