A major shift is occurring in the rice market that underpins Japanese dining tables and the food service industry.
According to trade statistics for 2025 released by the Ministry of Finance in January 2026, private-sector rice imports recorded a staggering figure approximately 95 times higher than the previous year.
Why is demand for foreign rice so high now, even with the extremely high tariff of 341 yen per kilogram? We explain the background of this surge: the soaring price of domestic rice and the changing market structure.
- 1. The Shocking Fact Revealed by Statistics: A 95-Fold Year-on-Year Surge in Imports
- 2. Why does foreign rice sell even with “high tariffs”?
- 3. The Serious Situation Facing the Food Service and Processing Industries
- 4. The Current State of Domestic Rice and Concerns Over the “Shift Away from Rice”
- Summary: Japan’s Rice Market at a Crossroads
1. The Shocking Fact Revealed by Statistics: A 95-Fold Year-on-Year Surge in Imports
According to the Ministry of Finance announcement, private-sector rice imports in 2025 reached 96,834 tons.
Considering that imports in 2024 were a mere 1,015 tons, this illustrates how dramatically the market environment changed in just one year.
Imports were particularly concentrated during the summer of 2025.
June: 20,979 tons
July: 26,397 tons
This period preceded the new rice harvest, coinciding with the peak of domestic rice inventory shortages and price surges.
2. Why does foreign rice sell even with “high tariffs”?
Japan imposes very strict restrictions and high tariffs on rice imports to protect its domestic rice farmers.
Limits of Minimum Access (Tariff-Free Quota)
The government imports approximately 770,000 tons annually duty-free as “Minimum Access” (minimum import volume).
However, to limit impact on the domestic market, the quota for rice used as a staple food is capped at a maximum of 100,000 tons.
For the 2025 fiscal year, this quota was filled up early, by November, failing to meet demand.
Cost Structure for Quota-Exceeding Imports
Imports exceeding the duty-free quota (quota-exceeding imports) face a high tariff of 341 yen per kilogram.
Normally, this tariff makes foreign rice more expensive than domestic rice.
However, from 2024 to 2025, the transaction price of domestic rice rose to what is described as “historically high levels.”
As a result, a near reversal occurred: “Even with the 341 yen tariff added, foreign rice became cheaper or comparable in total cost.”
3. The Serious Situation Facing the Food Service and Processing Industries
The rapid increase in private imports is primarily driven by food service chains and processors of products like boxed lunches and prepared foods.
- Cost Reduction as the Top Priority
Amid rising raw material and labor costs, the high cost of rice, a staple food, directly impacts business operations. - Stable Supply
The shortage of domestic rice (impacted by the so-called “Reiwa Rice Riots”) accelerated the shift toward foreign rice to secure stable procurement routes. - Improved Quality
Compared to foreign rice of the past, varieties better suited to Japanese palates and improved preservation techniques have led to increased utilization in blended rice and higher evaluation for commercial use.
4. The Current State of Domestic Rice and Concerns Over the “Shift Away from Rice”
While imports began to decline after September 2025 as the new rice harvest got underway, the underlying problem has not been fundamentally resolved.
This is because businesses that switched to foreign rice may not necessarily return to domestic rice.
- Switching Costs
If rice cooking settings or recipes are optimized for foreign rice, reverting them back will require additional effort. - Price Rigidity
Due to rising production costs (fertilizer and fuel expenses), it is predicted that domestic rice prices will struggle to return to their previous low levels.
If this situation persists, concerns are being raised that consumers will increasingly turn away from domestic rice, potentially destabilizing Japan’s agricultural foundation itself.
Summary: Japan’s Rice Market at a Crossroads
The figure of 95 times more private imports by 2025 is not merely a result of temporary shortages, but a sign that the balance between “maintaining domestic rice prices” and “ensuring stable supply” is beginning to break down.
Will consumers increasingly accept cheaper foreign rice, or will domestic rice rebuild its brand value and make a comeback? We must keep a close eye on government agricultural policies and trends in the distribution and restaurant industries.
