According to the Household Expenditure Survey for February 2026 released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on April 7, consumption expenditure for households with two or more members stood at 289,391 yen, marking a 1.8% year-on-year decrease in real terms after adjusting for price fluctuations.
This marks the third consecutive month of decline, once again highlighting the current situation where the recovery in personal consumption is lagging.
This Household Expenditure Survey serves as a key indicator of how households are adjusting their spending amid prolonged high inflation, and it influences the economic policies of both the government and businesses.
In particular, while wage increases are becoming more widespread in 2026, attention is focused on the extent to which real purchasing power will recover, and these results hold significant meaning as a factor in predicting that outcome.
■ Rising Prices of Daily Necessities Persist, Leading Households to Adopt a “Defensive Stance”
A notable finding in this survey is that spending on daily necessities, such as food and utilities, remains stubbornly high.
Although the rate of price increases has moderated from its peak, many households still feel that prices are “still high,” leading to a growing tendency to save.
Food, in particular, is an area that places a heavy burden on households, as rising import costs and logistics expenses are easily reflected in prices.
As a result, “discretionary spending” on dining out and leisure activities is being curtailed, and this pattern continues to drive down overall consumer spending.
Furthermore, regarding utility costs, adjustments to electricity rates and fluctuations in fuel prices are impacting household budgets, and February—when winter heating demand peaks—is a period when spending tends to rise significantly.
Against this backdrop, households continue to prioritize essential spending while refraining from purchasing entertainment and durable goods.
■ Sluggish Personal Consumption Weighs on the Japanese Economy as a Whole
Since personal consumption accounts for more than half of Japan’s GDP, a prolonged period of negative growth like the current one will serve as a factor that weakens the momentum of the economic recovery.
Although companies are raising wages, many households are not seeing their real incomes increase at a rate that outpaces inflation, and the situation where consumption struggles to grow continues.
Particularly in rural areas, high prices are compounded by issues such as population decline and income inequality, leading to a tendency for consumption to recover more slowly than in urban areas.
It has been pointed out that these regional disparities may be influencing overall consumption trends.
While the government is implementing measures to combat high prices and support household incomes, stable wage growth and stable prices are necessary for households to feel “secure” in their spending.
The results of this household survey suggest that the effects of these policies have not yet fully taken hold.
■ Wage Increases Starting This Spring Are Key to Consumption Recovery
In the 2026 spring wage negotiations, many companies are expected to implement wage increases exceeding the previous year’s levels, though these are not expected to be reflected in household budgets until early summer or later.
If wage increases lead to an improvement in real income, there is a strong possibility that consumption will pick up.
However, it remains unclear to what extent the benefits of these wage increases will extend to non-regular employees and workers at small and medium-sized enterprises.
Furthermore, there is a risk that rising wages will lead to higher prices, so a “sense of security about the future” will likely be essential for households to actively increase their spending.
Among economic analysts,
- The Spread of Wage Increases
- Price Stability
- Improvement in Consumer Sentiment
Many believe that a full-fledged recovery in consumption will finally come into view once these three factors align, but personally, I think a recovery in consumption will be difficult.
So-called experts are out of touch with the everyday public, and have they ever actually been right about anything?
■ Key Points to Watch
The following three points will be of particular interest in future household surveys.
- To what extent will wage increases affect real consumption?
- Will the inflation rate stabilize and ease the burden on households?
- Will discretionary spending on dining out, travel, and durable goods recover?
It is expected that 2026 will be a year in which fluctuations in the yen exchange rate and energy prices will have a significant impact on household budgets, and consumer trends will be highly susceptible to external factors.
