The Reasons Behind Germany's Collapse and Japan's Future | The Truth Revealed Through the Limits of Immigration Policy and Social Infrastructure

Amid major upheavals in the global political landscape and social structures, Germany—long regarded as Europe’s economic leader—is experiencing severe dysfunction.
In a video discussion featuring Yukihisa Oikawa and Osamu Nagashima, the rapid social changes and the rise of new political parties in Germany are framed as “part of a global Great Reset,” and the structural factors behind these developments are explained in detail.

In this article, we will organize and examine, based on facts, the truth behind the rapidly unfolding political and social crisis in Germany and what it implies for Japan’s future.

Conclusion (Key Points of This Article)

• The Rapid Rise
  in Support for a New Political Party in Germany (AFD): Behind the surge in support for the AFD (Alternative for Germany)—which has been criticized by the media as “far-right”—lie the rapid increase in immigration,deteriorating public safety, the chaotic state of energy policy (soaring electricity prices and the exodus of manufacturing caused by the phase-out of nuclear power and the shift to renewable energy), and the self-destruction and dysfunction of the established political parties.
• The Rapid Increase in Foreign Workers in Japan and the Limits of On-the-Ground Capacity
  : While foreign workers currently account for about 3.3 percent of Japan’s workforce, the rate of increase is extremely high. In some local governments and educational institutions, limitations in handling this influx—due to language and cultural barriers as well as insufficient infrastructure—are
  already beginning to surface.
• The “Boiling Frog” Phenomenon in Japanese Society and Its Structural Crisis: By remaining confined to a “comfort zone” where the status quo is maintained without a shared
  sense of crisis, Japan runs the risk of facing the same inconvenient truths and social turmoil as Germany, all while failing to recognize the dramatic changes taking place in the world.

What’s Happening in Germany: A Chain Reaction of Political, Social, and Economic Collapse

1. The Background Behind the Rapid Rise in Support for the AFD (Alternative for Germany)

The most notable change in German politics is the rapid rise of the AfD, a new political party.

• A History of Intense Backlash and Social Pressure
  : Although the AFD was founded 10 years ago, it has been the target of fierce backlash from the media and established political forces since its inception. The party has a history of facing extreme social pressure, including instances where
  supporters have been subjected to physical and social violence and party leaders have been attacked.
• A Dramatic Rise as Seen in Election Results: Despite
  this intense criticism and pressure, the AFD rose to become the leading party in local elections beginning in 2024.
  Furthermore, in the 2025 federal election, it surged to become the second-largest party.In the 2026 local elections, amid an unusually high voter turnout exceeding 80 percent, the number of votes cast for the AFD increased significantly, solidifying its position as a political force that cannot be ignored.

2. The “self-destruction of existing political parties” and policy failures underlying this situation

The AFD’s rapid rise is not merely a political trend; it is a reflection of the public’s despair with the established political parties that have dominated German politics since the end of World War II.

In Germany, the center-right CDU (Christian Democratic Union) and the center-left SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany) have alternated in power for many years, but the policies advocated by the two parties have become virtually indistinguishable.
As a result, the following problems have arisen.

• Failed Energy Policy and Industrial Hollowing-Out
  : The rapid shift to renewable energy and the forced shutdown of nuclear power plants led to a sharp rise in electricity prices. This resulted in the manufacturing sector—the backbone of the
  German economy—being unable to bear the costs and relocating overseas.
• Unrestricted Immigration Policies and Deteriorating
  Public Safety As a result of the expansion of unrestricted immigration policies, the proportion of foreign nationals has reached 19 to 20 percent of the total population (about one in five people).
  Consequently, public safety has deteriorated significantly—particularly with regard to sex crimes—and existing social infrastructure and public services have effectively collapsed.

The public’s conclusion that “the existing framework has reached its limits” led to a shift away from established political parties and a concentration of support for emerging forces.

What Lies Ahead for Japan: Current Data and Underlying Structural Challenges

1. The Reality of a 3.3% Foreign Resident Population and Its Rapid Growth

The current percentage of foreign residents in Japan stands at just 3.3 percent, and at first glance, the situation does not appear to be as critical as it is in Germany.
However, when we look at the rate of increase and the actual numbers, the gravity of the situation becomes clear.

• Total Number of Foreign Residents Exceeds Shizuoka Prefecture’s Population: The total number of foreign residents
  currently living in Japan has reached 4.12 million, which exceeds the total population of Shizuoka Prefecture.
• Projections
  indicate the population will grow to the size of Fukuoka Prefecture (5 million people) within a few years. If the current rate of growth continues, it has been pointed out that the population could reach 5 million—equivalent to that of Fukuoka Prefecture—in just 3 to 4 years.
• Overwhelmed
  Educational and Administrative Infrastructure As the number of foreign children attending local schools increases—driven not only by single workers but also by a rise in families relocating with their children—the educational system is struggling to keep up. Educational institutions are crying out for help, as their capacity for language instruction and daily life support has not kept pace with
  this growth.
  Similarly, local governments are reaching their limits in terms of the burden of providing interpreters and multilingual services.

2. Japan’s biggest problem is that “it doesn’t realize there’s a problem.”

In Germany, political turmoil only arose once social problems became apparent to everyone; in Japan, however, the problem lies in the fact that “people are not even aware of the crisis itself.”

• The Inappropriate Interdependence
  Between Politics and Industry: To address a severe labor shortage, the business sector is increasingly relying on low-cost foreign labor.
  Meanwhile, the political establishment continues to comply with the business sector’s demands without fully understanding the nature of this structural problem, resulting in a persistent inability to implement fundamental policy changes.
• Social Risks Posed by the Hasty Recruitment of Labor: A system that continues to rely on cheap foreign labor while neglecting to improve working conditions and boost productivity for
  domestic workers carries significant risks that could lead to workers going missing, an increase in crime, a deterioration of public safety in local communities, and social unrest in the future.

The “Boiling Frog” Phenomenon in Japanese Society and the Trap of the Comfort Zone

In the interview, Osamu Nagashima uses the term “comfort zone (miniature garden)” to describe the psychological state in which many Japanese people currently find themselves.

【日本社会の茹でガエル化構造】
外部世界の劇的な構造変化（移民問題・エネルギー問題・政治不全）
  ↓
「箱庭（コンフォートゾーン）」の中に閉じこもる日本社会
 ・変化を極度に恐れる心理
 ・周囲と同じ価値観に守られ、危機感が共有されない環境
 ↓
気づかないうちに手遅れとなり、ドイツ同様の社会崩壊に直面

Even though problems exist, the tendency to avoid change and conflict takes precedence, and because those around us share the same values, a sense of crisis does not take hold throughout society.
As a result, we end up being left behind by global structural changes.

The social unrest that occurred in Germany was a phenomenon that surfaced the moment the people were forced to step outside their own “little worlds,” and it is highly likely that Japan will follow the same path.

Structural Problems in Politics: Japan’s Dysfunctional Legislature

The video sharply points out that the quality of politicians themselves and the outdated political structure are fundamental problems facing Japanese politics.

• The Proliferation of “Politicians as a Profession”: The reality is that many politicians choose a political career not as “architects of a grand design” who envision the
  nation’s future or a 100-year plan, but simply as a personal “job or career path.”
• Politics, Lacking a
  National Vision and Characterized by Defective Debate and Blind Compliance with Industry Interests, has become a mere shell of its former self, existing solely to rubber-stamp the demands of specific industries. As for the quality of debate
  in the Diet, there is no substantive policy discussion, and the situation is so dire that it has been derided as being “worse than a school class meeting.”
• The Existing System’s Linguistic Framework and Resistance
  : Even if politicians with new perspectives or a spirit of reform were to enter the political arena, there is a structural dynamic in which they are hindered by the existing linguistic framework and outdated customs that have developed over many years, preventing them from demonstrating their true capabilities and ultimately driving them into dysfunction.

Three Challenges Japan Must Address Immediately

Drawing lessons from Germany’s failures, the three key tasks Japan must immediately address to avoid catastrophic social collapse are as follows:

1. Structural Reform to Reduce Reliance on Foreign Workers

In sectors such as nursing care, construction, and food processing, there are situations where it has become difficult to maintain business operations without foreign workers.
However, the root causes of this lie in the “poor working conditions” and “low-wage structure” faced by domestic workers.If we continue to accept foreign workers without making
fundamental improvements to working conditions or investing in labor-saving measures, it will eventually come back to haunt us in the form of catastrophic social costs.

2. Fundamental Strengthening of Educational and Administrative Infrastructure

With the rapid increase in the number of foreign children, the capacity of schools and local governments to accommodate them has already reached its limit. Unless effective measures to strengthen infrastructure—such as assigning
interpreters, establishing Japanese language education systems, and providing support for adaptation to local communities—are implemented promptly, this will lead to the fragmentation and collapse of local communities.

3. Updating the Political System

As the world undergoes drastic changes, the outdated frameworks of existing political parties and rigid political systems are no longer capable of responding to these challenges.
There is a strong need for the emergence of political forces and leaders with new values who can chart a grand vision for the entire nation and carry out structural reforms.

Summary: Germany’s Collapse Is a “Forecast for Japan’s Future”

The series of events unfolding in Germany—the “unplanned surge in immigration,” “deteriorating public safety,” “decline of key industries,” “dysfunction of established political parties,” “explosion of public discontent,” and “rapid rise of new political forces”—are by no means events taking place in a distant, foreign land.

Japan is currently still confined within its “miniature world,” which is simply why it hasn’t noticed the approaching crisis—but isn’t it possible that, beneath the surface, the exact same structural risks are unfolding as in Germany?

If we act “now,” before it’s too late, it is entirely possible to avert the worst-case scenario through a shift in policy and structural reforms.
However, if we continue down this path without a sense of urgency and keep turning a blind eye to inconvenient truths, I must say that it is extremely likely that Japan will follow in Germany’s footsteps and face a severe social collapse.